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Showing posts from April 23, 2019

GDP Figures: The Politics of Economics

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India Legal Sanjiv Bhatia April 20, 2019 Recently there has been much debate about the Indian economy. Surveys conducted by government agencies such as the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) and data collected by reputed private agencies like the Centre for Monitoring the India Economy (CMIE), show a dramatic uptick in unemployment over the last four years. The NSSO survey shows that unemployment increased from 2.2 percent in 2011-12 to an all-time high of 6.1 percent in 2018, with the highest unemployment among youth between the ages of 15 and 29. The CMIE data shows that the number of people employed dropped by 11 million—from 408 million in 2017 to 397 million in 2018. Additionally, the number of youth who are “not in education, employment or training (NEET)” increased from 70 million in 2004-5 to 116 million in 2017-18 with 70 percent of this increase coming in the past two years. Rural distress and massive disruption in the informal economy after demonetisation accentu

Why Imran Khan bats for Narendra Modi

The Indian Express by Ayesha Siddiqa  April 22, 2019 It seems that people from very odd quarters — such as Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan— want Narendra Modi to win the upcoming elections. Khan’s recent comments, in which he desired victory for his counterpart as good for the future of a peace initiative, may be driven by pragmatic reasons, but it indicates the separation that exists between the two countries. Following comments by the Opposition and in segments of the social media, the federal information minister intervened and pretended that Khan, who can often open his mouth before engaging his brain, was misunderstood. Intriguingly, despite India being the most significant country in the neighbourhood, its election outcomes have marginal impact on the region. Khan’s statement, in fact, indicates that disconnectedness in which the head of the government of a neighbouring state refused to measure the implications beyond tactical effect. It seems a right-wing government in

Companies may take only 3 days to register with central agencies

The Economic Times Apr 21, 2019 In a bid to break into the top 50 countries for ease of doing business, India may soon put in place a simple, single clearance process to incorporate a company with seamless registration of permanent account number, Tax Account Number, Goods and Services Tax, Employee Provident Fund Organisation and Employee State Insurance Corporation in flat three days. The Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade or DPIIT, is working on the next set of measures for improving India’s Ease of Doing Business ranking by 27 places for the country to enter the top 50.  At present, there are issues on name reservation that is being sorted out by the ministry of corporate affairs, said a senior government official. Sometimes, due to queuing at other agencies, clearances can take longer, which is being fixed.  A seamless process in html format is being proposed for registration with all central agencies, which will ensure a single layer of proces

Bankers hope for less pain as RBI readies new stressed-asset norms

The Hindu Business Line K Ram Kumar April 19, 2019 Bankers are hoping the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will be somewhat liberal when it brings out a fresh circular on the resolution of stressed assets. On the wish-list are an extended timeline for filing of the Corporate Insolvency Resolution Process (CIRP) with the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) as well as implementation of the resolution plan, and reversal of provisions at the time of change of management. A fresh circular is required as the Supreme Court on April 2 set aside the RBI’s February 12, 2018, circular on revised framework for the resolution of stressed assets. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das had said necessary steps, including the issuance of a revised circular for quick and effective resolution of stressed assets, will be taken. Banks have suggested to the RBI that the time period for the filing of the CIRP with the NCLT be extended to 30 days (against 15 days in the defunct circular) on default during the

Government or state banks - who is to blame for India's slowdown?

Business Standard  April 22, 2019 By- Neelkanth Mishra  India, the world's fastest growing large economy, is slowing: There has been a visible deceleration in activity in the past six months. It started with slowing sales of autos and some durable goods and has spread from there. Airline traffic growth is down; companies are now saying sales of consumer staples such as soaps and detergents have begun to weaken, too. Even as the hunt for reasons for the slowdown begins, the main culprit appears to be a familiar one: the still largely government-owned financial system. The issue is that there isn’t enough money in the economy. For much of the past two years, distributors and retailers of consumer products have been warning of a growing lack of liquidity. At first, policymakers largely dismissed their concerns. The government's late 2016 decision to withdraw most currency from circulation temporarily, and the introduction the following year of a nationwide goods-and-

Govt policies put aviation sector on a wing and a prayer

Business Line Ashwini Phadnis April 19, 2019  Have government policies helped or hindered the growth of the civil aviation sector in the 25 years since the Air Corporation Act was amended in 1993 allowing the re-entry of the private sector into the domestic civil aviation space? More airlines sprung up V Subramanian, former Secretary and Member Secretary of the Naresh Chandra Committee — which came up with a report on the roadmap for the Civil Aviation sector in 2003 — is of the view that the government has helped domestic aviation as more airlines have come up and more cities have got linked by air. The former bureaucrat has a point. When the Act was amended a number of airlines took to the skies and connectivity across the country has improved dramatically since then. Among those who took advantage of the Act were Modi-Luft, a joint venture between Lufthansa and SK Modi; Damania Airways promoted by Parvez Damania and EastWest Airlines. And, there were Air Sahara and Je

The world economy is moving closer to another hard landing

Live Mint  April 22, 2019 By-  V. Anantha Nageswaran During the long Easter weekend, a colleague shared some information about a course that two teachers at the University of Washington have floated. The course is titled, “Calling Bullshit". It is about identifying, understanding and dealing with bullshit. The instructors would find rich pickings in financial markets and in macroeconomic data and policies. Take the valuation of technology unicorns. According to a recent article (The wave of unicorn IPOs reveals Silicon Valley’s group think, 17 April) in The Economist, 11 out of 12 unicorns lack profits. In general, 84% of companies going for an initial public offering (IPO) lack profits. Ten years ago, that figure was 33%. The current profitless share offerings match the situation in… the year 2000. Yes, we are back there. The operating margin for the median company is -30%. Equity value/revenue multiples in the double-digits are more common than otherwise. Ruchi