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Showing posts from July 19, 2019

ADB cuts India's GDP growth forecast to 7% for FY20; retains fastest growing major economy tag

First Post July 19, 2019 Press Trust of India Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Thursday lowered the growth forecast for India from 7.2 to 7 percent for the current fiscal, due to moderation in growth prospects for the advanced economies which could adversely affect tradable services. ADB, however, maintained that India would continue to remain the fastest-growing major economy ahead of China. Releasing its update on the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2019, it said China will grow at 6.3 percent in 2019, and slip further to 6.1 percent in 2020, mainly on account of continuing trade war with the US. India's economic growth, it said, is expected to inch up again to 7.2 percent in FY2020 (2020-21), helped by recent reforms to improve the business climate, strengthen banks, and relieve agrarian distress, ADB said in the supplement. Notably, the 7.2 percent economic growth projection in April this year was also curtailed from ADB's earlier projection of 7.6

Sovereign bonds: another demonetization moment?

The Telegraph July 18, 2019 By Editorial Board The tremors could rock domestic bond markets, raising the frightening prospect of a ‘foreign tail wagging an Indian dog’ The Narendra Modi government has sparked another ‘demonetization’ moment — this time it is over its decision to float sovereign bonds on overseas markets. The finance minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, who made the shock announcement in her budget on July 5, insists that there have been extensive discussions before the government decided to push ahead with an idea that previous regimes had flirted with but never worked up the courage to take. The government believes it has a compelling argument for a foreign currency-denominated sovereign bond issue. It does not want to crowd out private borrowers from the domestic capital market; it intends to borrow money at a very low cost in order to fund a part of its Rs 7.03 lakh crore fiscal deficit; and it wants to bring down the real rate of interest for industry from t

After India calls for action on ICJ order, Pakistan says will grant consular access to Kulbhushan Jadhav

The Indian Express July 19, 2019 By Subhajit Roy  External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, who as Foreign Secretary had played a key role in taking the matter to the ICJ, made a statement in both Houses of Parliament where he also asked Pakistan to “release and repatriate Jadhav forthwith”. Hours after New Delhi asked Islamabad to “immediately” grant consular access to Kulbhushan Jadhav, the former Indian Navy officer whose death sentence by a Pakistan military court was suspended by the International Court of Justice a day earlier, Pakistan Thursday night announced it “will grant consular access… according to Pakistani laws, for which modalities are being worked out”. In a press release from Islamabad, the Pakistan government’s official spokesperson also said: “Pursuant to the decision of the ICJ, Commander Kulbushan Jadhav has been informed of his rights under Article 36, Paragraph 1(b) of the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations.” Earlier, External Affairs Mi

India draws new ‘red lines’ for talks on Afghan peace process

The Indian Express July 19, 2019 By Subhajit Roy These new “red lines” are going to be India’s new mantras, even as it pushes for a peace process which is Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled. HAVING SOFTENED its position on engaging with the Taliban, India has now spelt out its three new “red lines” on the peace and reconciliation process in Afghanistan. The first is that “all initiatives and processes must include all sections of the Afghan society, including the legitimately elected government”. This is important as, in the past, the Afghan government was often sidelined by international interlocutors when they engaged with the Taliban. This also means that there is acceptability in Delhi about talking to the Taliban — since they represent a “section of the Afghan society”. The second is that “any process should respect the constitutional legacy and political mandate”. This means that the achievement of establishing democratic processes and human righ

Surely, 50 years is a good time to review bank nationalisation

The Indian Express July 19, 2019 By Shaji Vikraman Fifty years after bank nationalisation, banking is still seen as an enterprise driven by social purpose and political considerations — not depositors’ interests. This needs to change. Fifty years ago, after her government issued an ordinance on July 19, 1969 to nationalise 14 banks which had deposits of over Rs.50 crore, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi addressed the custodians of these banks at the end of September 1969. In that meeting, she told them that banks, being closely linked with the development of the economy, could not remain uninfluenced by the needs of the political situation. “The political situation in our country today demands that banking facilities should be extended in an increasing measure to backward areas, to agriculture, to small-scale industry and so on and perhaps banking operations should be informed by a larger social purpose. But if this is what is meant by political consideration, certainly,

Ex-CEA Arvind Subramanian defends his growth numbers, says important to re-visit methodology

The Indian Express July 19, 2019 By ENS  In a paper presented at the India Policy Forum in New Delhi, Subramanian begins by arguing that in the period between 2011 and 2016, the Indian economy was hit by a series of shocks which should have negatively impacted economic activity. Former chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian has issued a detailed response to questions raised by several economists over his claims that India’s GDP growth has been overestimated by 2.5 percentage points between 2011 and 2016. In a paper presented at the India Policy Forum in New Delhi, Subramanian begins by arguing that in the period between 2011 and 2016, the Indian economy was hit by a series of shocks which should have negatively impacted economic activity. The collapse in exports, loss of macro economic stability during the last few years of UPA 2 government, the problems of an over-leveraged corporate sector and bruised bank balance sheets, the drought in 2014-15 and demonetisation

15 Pro-Khalistanis active in Pakistan: Indian dossier to Islamabad

The Economic Times July 19, 2019 By Rahul Tripathi The dossier containing events from the past four years was handed over to Pakistan during the second round of Kartarpur Corridor talks.  India has given Pakistan a detailed list of at least 15 individuals allegedly involved in pro-Khalistani activities in Pakistan, in the garb of making preparations for celebrating the 550th birth anniversary of Guru Nanak Dev in November.  The dossier containing events from the past four years was handed over to Pakistan during the second round of Kartarpur Corridor talks between the two countries in Wagah on Sunday. Both have agreed to operationalise the corridor before November.  The 23-page dossier, reviewed by ET, points to “open display of banners backing Bhindranwale and Referendum 2020 inside the holy shrines in Pakistan by the UK-based pro-Khalistanis like Manmohan Singh Bajaj.” These pro-Khalistanis are misguiding Sikh youths along the lines of Kashmiri youths and instig