India coronavirus numbers explained: More recoveries than active cases, but how relevant is that


The Indian Express
Dated: June 12, 2020
By: Amitabh Sinha

The number of people who have recovered from Covid-19 disease in India is now more than those who are still sick. The Home Ministry’s latest update on Thursday showed that 1.41 lakh people had recovered from the disease, while a little more than 1.37 lakh cases were active.

Apart from being an interesting milestone, this statistic has little relevance. This doesn’t mark the beginning of the end of the epidemic, nor is it the arrival of the “peak”. It does not mean either that the number of cases would be declining from now on. In fact, once the number of deaths is brought into the equation, 8,102 at last count, it becomes clear that less than 50 per cent of the total infected people (2.86 lakh) have recovered so far. The total recoveries, in fact, work out to 49 per cent of all cases.

More importantly, total recoveries and the number of active cases are not comparable metrics. Total recoveries account for everyone who has recovered from the disease since the start of the outbreak. It is an accumulated number. Active cases, on the other hand, are only those that have been infected in the last 14 days, if it is assumed that every infected person, apart from those who die, is recovering in 14 days. So the comparison being made is between a number that has accumulated over three months, and increasing, which is the case in India right now, and a number that has emerged in the last two weeks.

Recovery rate will keep rising

It is no surprise that with the passage of time, the number of recoveries will progressively rise, even as a percentage of total infections in the country. As discussed earlier, about 49 per cent of everyone who has been infected have recovered. This percentage will increase progressively. In fact, if the overall fatality remains what scientists expect it to be, below one per cent eventually, then, by the time the epidemic comes to an end, more than 99 per cent of the infected would be expected to have recovered.

Right now, the fatality rate in India is about 2.8 per cent. But that is only because we are measuring the number of dead against the infections that have been confirmed through testing. Most likely, there are many more people who are also carrying the infection, but are unknown because they have not been tested. In large population groups, like that in India, the exact number of people infected during an epidemic may never be known, because the entire population cannot be tested. But scientists have ways to reach reliable estimates through careful sampling of people who can be selected for testing.

When those untested and unconfirmed infections are also accounted for, scientists expect the overall fatality to remain below one per cent. So, by the time the epidemic is over, the recovery rate should go up to at least 99 per cent. That milestone is still some distance away.



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