Coronavirus outbreak and economic impact: If G7 call is talk and no action, markets could be disappointed, say analysts
Firstpost
March 03, 2020
Reuters
G7 finance ministers and central bank governors will hold a conference call on Tuesday to discuss measures to deal with the coronavirus outbreak and its economic impact.
The call, which French and Italian sources said begins at 1200 GMT, comes as futures markets bet that the US Federal Reserve will lead a round of global monetary easing.
As it stands, the draft statement includes a pledge to work together but no specific fiscal or monetary measures, a G7 official told Reuters on condition of anonymity.
Here are analyst views on what could be announced and the likely upshot of the G7 call for markets:
Alvin Liew, senior economist, UOB, Singapore
They need to announce something, just a motherhood statement would definitely disappoint the market. Targeted measures or directed lending at the sectors that are affected are something they could do.
The policy rate aspect, I’m not quite sure that can deal effectively with the problems that are caused by the virus....at the same time, for them to all agree on something coordinated, I’m not quite sure there is anything (else) so straightforward.
Coronavirus outbreak and economic impact: If G7 call is talk and no action, markets could be disappointed, say analysts
Joe Capurso, FX analyst, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Sydney
We don’t have high expectations that the G7 are going to announce a co-ordinated policy easing. We can see some central banks being reluctant to pull the trigger on that. (Some) may introduce liquidity measures. But the point we’ve been making recently is that a lower price of money does not fix the fear that people have of catching the virus. That is what’s causing the economic disruption and lower interest rates aren’t going to fix the fear.
Selena Ling, Head of Research and Strategy, Singapore
They may commit to policy accommodation, to combat the downside growth risks, and probably leave it open ended as to whether it is going to be monetary alone or monetary and fiscal. If they gave a timeframe as to when they are going to meet again, then maybe that is something concrete...(but) my sense is that global jawboning can only work for so long. G7 communiques have certainly lost most of their weight in recent years, they just have a hodgepodge of things they want to do and things they are hoping to do. I think the bigger theme is that because the correction in the equity market and the rally in the bond market have gone so far, they are kind of pricing in a recession story...I don’t think (talk) is enough to reclaim all the lost ground.
Masayuki Kichikawa, Chief Macro Strategist, Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co, Tokyo
Investors are already pricing global monetary easing into the markets, so the focus could fall more on fiscal stimulus. It turns out that the biggest fiscal boost is likely to come from China. I am skeptical whether other countries can come up with fiscal stimulus that is large enough to impact the global economy. Expectations for the G7 are not that high. The tool kit is different for each central bank. The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates. The European Central Bank may also cut rates and opt for some quantitative measures. The Bank of Japan will focus on buying exchange-traded funds.
Rob Carbekkm Chief Economist, Asia-Pacific, ING, Singapore
I’m not sure we’re really expecting a lot from them. I’m not sure it’s really going to deliver a big dollop of fiscal stimulus, which is probably what the market would like to see but which I think it realistically doesn’t anticipate seeing. I mean, can you really imagine any of the countries in Europe coming up with a meaningful contribution to spending that’s going to make a difference to what the virus is actually doing?
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