Analysis: Key messages in Islamic State leader’s speech

BBC Monitoring

September 17, 2019

Mina al-Lami

The leader of Islamic State group (IS), Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, has released a new message, the second this year, insisting that his group remains a potent force and a global threat.

But al-Baghdadi’s softer tone towards Sunni Muslims who have allegedly strayed from the correct path and his call on his militants to be patient with ordinary Muslims suggests the group is aware it no longer has the upper hand and needs to go back to appealing to Sunnis for support.

The IS leader also made his first strong mention of the plight of IS-linked men and women in prisons and refugee camps, presumably in Syria and Iraq, calling on the group’s fighter to free them or at least avenge them by targeting their captors.

The audio message of 16 September comes five months after al-Baghdadi’s rare video appearance of 29 April that followed the group’s loss of its last base in Syria.

Gaps between al-Baghdadi messages are usually longer, suggesting the group’s leader is keen to indicate that both IS and its chief are alive and well.

While it is not clear when the audio message was recorded, al-Baghdadi’s reference to an IS campaign that he said took place “in the last month of last [Islamic Hijri] year 1440”, which ended on 30 August, suggests the message is new.

Al-Baghdadi’s message was produced by IS’s veteran media arm al-Furqan that specialises in producing leadership messages and rare high-profile videos. It was released via IS’s accounts on the messages app Telegram.

This report will look at the key messages highlighted in the speech.

Not over, coordinated attacks

The overall message al-Baghdadi delivered was that IS is far from over and that its global branches remain active despite the group’s territorial losses.

Al-Baghdadi repeatedly refers to “half a decade” since the caliphate was established – on 29 June 2014 - boasting that despite all the forces that rallied against it over the past years, IS remains strong.

As evidence, al-Baghdadi gives a statistical rundown of the coordinated attacks carried out by the group this year, particularly following its loss of its last base in Syria in March. The information he cites had already been published by IS in glossy infographics in previous months.

Al-Baghdadi is referring to the “Revenge Campaign” launched in April to avenge the group’s loss of Baghuz in Syria the previous month, and the “Attrition Campaign”, parts one and two in June and August, which the group announced as part of its declared “war of attrition” to wear down its enemies. IS had claimed dozens of attacks in various parts of the world under the titles of these campaigns.

Al-Baghdadi boasted that these “coordinated campaigns”, which he said had been well planned in advance with set targets, “are the first of their kind in modern jihadist history”, in reference to their coordinated nature and global spread.

He said the Revenge Campaign “struck in eight countries in over 80 areas”, adding that the total number of attacks in the course of four days was 92.

Al-Baghdadi claimed that the first Attrition Campaign, which took place in June, targeted 11 countries and mounted a total of 61 attacks in three days, while its second phase, in August, saw IS militants strike in 10 countries with a total of 152 attacks in 10 days.

He stressed that IS’s attacks are not restricted to declared campaigns, adding that “attrition” attacks take place every day in various parts of the world.

Highlighting the global nature of IS’s presence, al-Baghdadi said that after being targeted in Iraq and Afghanistan, the US “has been dragged into Mali and Niger” and that the country and its allies “are being drained in a [global] battlefront they are not fit for".

In this context, he made reference to an alleged remark by the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford as purportedly admitting that the US cannot protect its allies in the face of the IS threat.

Al-Baghdadi also boasted about the ongoing commitment of the group’s fighters despite the setbacks the group has faced.

"Half a decade has passed, and still, the delegations of monotheists and mujahidin flock [towards IS], offering their pledges of allegiance...seeking to obey God by maintaining unity”.

This part appears to be a reference to the 15 propaganda videos IS released between June and September that featured militants around the world renewing their pledges of allegiance to IS leadership and vowing to fight on. It is also a likely reference to the four new branches IS declared this year in “Central Africa” (DR Congo and Mozambique), India, Pakistan and Turkey in which IS welcomed new members to the fold.

Free the prisoners

The most significant part of al-Baghdadi’s message was his call on IS fighters to prioritise the freeing of IS-linked prisoners, both men and women, held in prisons he said were run by the Shia and the Kurds, in a likely reference to prisons in Iraq and Syria.

Al-Qaeda supporters had strongly criticised al-Baghdadi when he failed to mention the plight of IS-linked women held in camps in eastern Syria in his last message of 29 April.

IS has so far only made shy references to the subject of its women and children in camps like al-Hol in eastern Syria run by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). It is a thorny subject for the group that was seen as abandoning its women and children or at least failing to protect them.

“O soldiers of the caliphate. Your brothers and sisters suffer in prison. Work hard to rescue them and break down the walls that imprison them”, al-Baghdadi appealed in the new message.

He said that if fighters fail to free the prisoners, they should at least try to avenge them by targeting “the investigators, the prosecutors and whoever harms them [prisoners]”.

He concluded by telling prisoners, “your brothers have not forgotten nor will forget to avenge you”.

In his appeal, al-Baghdadi invoked the famous IS “Hadm al-Aswar” ("Breaking Down the [prison] Walls") slogan, in reference to the group’s pre-caliphate campaigns that saw IS’s predecessor raid jails in Iraq and reportedly free hundreds of prisoners.

In July 2013 IS’s predecessor, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS or ISIL), mounted brazen attacks on two Iraqi prisons, Abu Ghraib to the west of the capital Baghdad and al-Taji to its north, allegedly freeing over 500 inmates, many of whom went on to consolidate IS’s leadership and structure.

The 2013 jail breaks came exactly a year after al-Baghdadi launched the “Breaking Down the Walls” campaign (in July 2012) that made the freeing of prisoners a priority.

Back then, the cause of prisoners had featured prominently in the group’s propaganda and appeared designed to appeal not only to its core supporters, but to Sunnis as a whole. 

The latest appeal may see IS soldiers step up their attacks in an effort to free prisoners or target their perceived captors.

In July, IS claimed three attacks against the SDF in north-eastern Syria, saying they were revenge for the women held in camps in the region.

And in a video in August, the group’s militants in Syria told imprisoned women “we have not forgotten about you” and vowed to avenge them by targeting SDF forces in the country. 

Softer message

In the latest message, al-Baghdadi did not end his speech by urging militants around the world to step up attacks against IS enemies in various parts of the world nor called for lone actor attacks, which is typical of IS leadership messages in general. Also, he did not warn Sunni Muslims to repent and toe the line or be punished.

Instead, al-Baghdadi delivered a softer message that showed more tolerance and forgiveness towards ordinary Sunni Muslims, in a clear effort to win them over.

Rather than appealing to his followers to mount deadly attacks, he called on them to “double” their “da’wah” (preaching, proselytising) efforts in order to “educate” Sunni Muslims and show them “the correct” path.

He told his men to “be gentle” with Sunnis and to avoid arrogance and intolerance towards them, reminding them that many Muslims have been living in “ignorance” of their religion for centuries and needed to be enlightened.

Deal with people “using scientific [Sharia] arguments, justice and mercy”, he told IS followers.

He also urged them to accept the “repentance of those who repent”, explaining the duty of IS members to “educate” Muslims about IS’s creed and its reasons for fighting.

While al-Baghdadi had previously also said the group would pardon those who repent, his messages were delivered as threats and ultimatums to Sunnis.

Al-Baghdadi also urged his men to avoid injustice and be fair in dealing with people, saying it was a key pillar of Islam.

As the group is now weaker and no longer wields the power it did during the days of its so-called caliphate, it cannot afford to continue the same threatening tone it previously adopted with Sunnis, especially as it tries to rebuild its image and strength in Sunni areas.

This part of the message also indicates that IS is working to activate a “da’wah” phase of spreading the IS message through preaching and showing a softer side.

But such a softer approach on how to deal with Muslims who do not follow IS’s version of Islam may backfire.

It could alienate some of the group’s ultra-hardline followers who have engaged in ideological battles over how to treat Muslims perceived to have strayed from the correct path. Through his message, al-Baghdadi appears to lean towards pragmatists camp within IS who have warned against excessive excommunication of fellow Muslims.

This matter – the position of jihadist groups on ordinary Muslims – has always been a weak point that has divided jihadists. While jihadists pragmatists champion a soft approach in order to win over Sunnis, ultra-hardliners argue that ignorance does not pardon a Muslim’s “sinful” behaviour and therefore jihadists need to be ruthless in dealing with Muslims wo do not toe the line.

Reference:- https://monitoring.bbc.co.uk/product/c2013c5g