View From The Neighbourhood: Afghanistan opening

The India Express

July 15, 2019

Over the last few weeks, as the Trump Administration has been pushing for a rapprochement in Afghanistan between the Taliban and the elected government, it has opened up strategic possibilities for Pakistan. Both editorials and articles by columnists in the country’s press have recognised this opportunity to mend fences with the US. After all, the ISI and Pakistan deep state became salient — almost indispensable — in the US’s strategic calculus during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

The editorial in Dawn on July 14 welcomes what appears to progress in the “peace talks” among stakeholders in Afghanistan, especially as the Taliban seems to “be softening its rigid stance”: “A few days ago, in Doha, members of the militia met Afghan politicians and civil society activists, with the latter two appearing in a ‘personal’ capacity, and discussed numerous issues. While the Taliban maintain their rigid stance of not talking to the Ashraf Ghani-led government, there have been some positive outcomes of the latest conclave in Doha. Most notably, all participants agreed to bring down civilian casualties in the country to ‘zero’ and to ensure the security of schools, hospitals and markets. “

The fact that global powers recognise Pakistan’s role in building a stable Afghanistan is also recognised by the editorial. A statement issued by the US state department said that “Pakistan can play an important role in facilitating peace in Afghanistan”. The editorial writes: “Indeed, considering the long border this country shares with Afghanistan, and the fact that instability in the latter country directly affects Pakistan, Islamabad has a key role in helping bring this protracted conflict to an end. Moreover, while the US, China and Russia, along with other regional states, are playing important roles in trying to end the conflict, Afghanistan’s other neighbours — especially Iran, Uzbekistan and the Central Asian states — must also be involved in the peace process.”

Pakistan resurgent

An article by M Bilal Lakhani in The Express Tribune suggests that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s attempts to isolate Pakistan diplomatically have failed spectacularly and that the prospective “Trump-Iran summit will be the final nail in its coffin”. Lakhani cites the following as examples of Pakistan’s resurgence on the regional and global stage over the last 12 months: “Billions in aid are pouring from the Saudis and Emiratis, with the Qataris and Chinese playing on as a follow-up act; Pakistan is driving the peace process in Afghanistan and being appreciated by all sides; the BLA is declared a terrorist organisation by the US; and a surgical strike has open hearts across the border by allowing Sikh pilgrims to visit their holiest site in Pakistan.”

While Pakistan’s economy is struggling, Lakhani argues that its geopolitical gains will sooner or later address that issue as well. He also argues that with the US withdrawal from Afghanistan imminent, Pakistan’s importance will only grow. The article gives credit for these diplomatic successes to the fact that the current government enjoys the support of the military. He also argues, in a somewhat sycophantic manner, about the necessity of the Imran Khan government for peace: “The real diplomatic coup that Imran Khan and only Imran Khan can deliver is peace with India. A civilian government that enjoys a high level of support from the security establishment is the only power that can negotiate an end to our cold war with India. This would be a game changer for Pakistan (real tabdeeli, we can believe in) and transform the destiny of over a billion people living in South Asia. This looks impossible on the surface, but if Pakistan’s foreign policy players can negotiate peace between arch enemies America and the Taliban, then Pakistan and India suddenly don’t look like an impossible nut to crack.”

Border killings

The Home Minister of Bangladesh has disclosed that 294 citizens have been killed by the Indian Border Security Force (BSF) over the last decade. But “while the estimate paints a disturbing picture of our border security, the declining trend in border casualties leaves room for optimism,” according to the July 13 editorial in The Daily Star. The fact that the BSF chief called the casualties “unfortunate” and his Bangladesh counterpart said the situation was “grave” shows that both sides are on the same page and take the issue seriously.

The editorial does, however, have a prescription for the BSF to reduce casualties: “Securing the border is in the interest of both India and Bangladesh that share a 4,053km-long border between them. India has previously agreed to bring down cross-border casualties — which involve a disproportionately high number of Bangladeshi victims as opposed to negligible Indian numbers — to zero level. One way of ensuring safety at the border is for the BSF to use non-lethal force, which it had agree to do, to deter people trying to cross the border illegally. It calls for complete restraint on the Indian side.”

Reference:-https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/donald-trump-afghanistan-taliban-peace-talks-pakistan-relations-5829263/