China does the Taliban shuffle: Beijing's invite to terror outfit's chief negotiator a bid for greater geopolitical influence
First Post
June 22, 2019
China does the Taliban
shuffle: Beijing's invite to terror outfit's chief negotiator a bid for greater
geopolitical influence
After maintaining an
ambiguous stance for some time, the Chinese foreign ministry finally conceded
that it recently hosted Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Afghanistan Taliban’s
chief negotiator, who is involved in peace negotiations with the United States
over the political future of Afghanistan.
According to Beijing,
the Taliban delegation visited China as part of its efforts to promote peace
and reconciliation in Afghanistan. Clearly, Baradar’s ‘mission China’ marks a
significant shift in China’s Afghan policy, as it is likely to create an
opportunity for Beijing to exercise greater influence over the region’s
geopolitical context.
China’s growing
political and diplomatic profile at the international level requires it to
assume a more assertive role in resolving regional disputes. Afghanistan is a
test case for China, since the situation involves diverse conflict dynamics
with both regional and global implications. Thus, Beijing has sought to change
the diplomatic modus operandi, clearly implying that China must act as a real
“problem solver,” rather than just serving as a “channel of communication.”
China’s strategic
interests in Afghanistan are tied to the negative outcomes Beijing seeks to
avoid in its immediate periphery. For China, the undesirable security outcomes
include Afghanistan becoming a safe haven for Uighur radical groups, Islamic
forces exerting ideological influence in China’s restive Xinjiang province, and
insecurity in Afghanistan further destabilising Pakistan and other central
Asian republics.
It needs to be
underlined that Xinjiang is the only Chinese province that shares a border with
Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), Jammu amd Kashmir as well as Afghanistan, in
addition to sharing borders with Russia, Mongolia and central Asian republics
of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan. Though China has an obvious edge
over India due to sharing long borders with Central Asia, however it is also a
disadvantage when viewed from security perspective.
While regional peace is
a major prerequisite for realising the ‘China dream’, restoring and maintaining
stability in Afghanistan is equally critical to China’s security. The negative
scenario in Afghanistan could diminish the prospects of China’s grand
geopolitical project — the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) — as well as the
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is the most important component
of the BRI.
As one Chinese scholar,
Zhao Huasheng, rightly put it: “Considered negatively, Afghanistan is a like a
lock that can cut off Central, South and West Asia from each other. Considered
positively, it is the key that can open the door to collaboration between these
areas. It can be both of these to the Silk Road Economic Belt. Only when the
Afghan lock is opened can the Silk Road Economic Belt realise the
interconnections between these regions economically, financially and socially.
If it remains closed, any progress in implementing this initiative will be
greatly impeded.”
In other words,
instability in Afghanistan would directly impinge on China’s economic security,
particularly the security of its oil and gas pipelines. If Central Asia was to
become unstable due to instability in Afghanistan, successful execution of the
BRI projects would not be possible. That is why Xi Jinping did not forget to
remind his Afghan counterpart, during their bilateral meet on the sidelines of
just-concluded summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation at Bishkek in
mid-June, to firmly support China in its crackdown of East Turkistan Islamic
Movement (ETIM), an organisation branded by China as a terrorist group.
Chinese diplomatic moves
have not taken place in a geopolitical vacuum. Until recently, the Chinese role
in Afghanistan was not as visible and assertive as one would expect from an
aspiring global superpower. Although China held talks with Taliban: In 2015, an
Afghan Taliban delegation led by Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai had held
backchannel discussions in China, but Beijing continued to avoid being directly
sucked into the Afghan political quagmire. However, circumstances now seem more
favourable for the Chinese moves. Afghanistan is all set for another major
transition. As the possibility of an American exit from Afghanistan has grown,
and seems only a matter of time when it is eventually announced, China is
marching ahead to expand its role in the country.
When seen from Indian
perspective, China has one major advantage that other mediators, including the
US and Russia, lack. The Chinese enjoys a rock solid partnership with Pakistan,
which holds the key to the Afghan riddle. Beyond acting as the conflict’s
catalyst, the Pakistani side enjoys considerable links to those Afghan actors
which have a considerable spoiling potential.
Due to obvious strategic
advantages, Pakistan has openly and aggressively promoted the perception that
the path to peace in Afghanistan passes through Islamabad. In fact, Afghan
president Ashraf Ghani had undertaken his first official foreign visit to
Beijing in October 2014, not to Islamabad. The reason was obvious: Since
Pakistan provides ideological and material patronage to the Taliban, Ghani
wanted China to exercise its strategic leverage with Pakistan to persuade the
Taliban to talk peace with Kabul.
It is another matter
that nothing substantial came out of it. But China’s Afghan policy has evolved
from indifference to engagement as Beijing’s geostrategic and geoeconomic
interests in the region are continuing to expand via the BRI. If Ghani pledged
Afghan support to the BRI, Beijing has also begun preparations to fully
integrate Afghanistan as a member state into the SCO. Baradar’s China visit
should also been viewed with broader perspective of China’s push to ensure that
result-driven peace talks are held for the negotiated political settlement in
Afghanistan.
Besides the
Taliban-induced escalation in violence, one of the toughest challenges before
the Chinese diplomats has been to reduce tensions between Afghanistan and
Pakistan. Removing mutually hostile perceptions between the political elites of
Afghanistan and Pakistan is not an easy task. China is equally wary that proxy
battles in Afghanistan between India and Pakistan could escalate tensions in
the region.
Afghanistan has
maintained a close relationship with India, which has refused to be part of the
BRI. China is not oblivious to the emerging strategic consensus between India
and the US, which has been encouraging New Delhi to expand its footprint in
Afghanistan. Recognising India’s importance and its positive image among the
majority of Afghans, Beijing has made some moves indicating its willingness to
working closely with India in Afghanistan.
The possibility of
exploring joint projects was also discussed during the informal ‘Wuhan summit’
between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese president Xi Jinping last
year. Following this consensus, India and China conducted a joint training
program for Afghan diplomats. Last month, the Chinese special envoy Deng Xijun,
who was on a visit to New Delhi, held discussions on Afghan situation with
India’s foreign secretary Vijay Gokhale. However, there is widespread
scepticism of India-China collaboration in Afghanistan due to the fact that
China has become the primary regional competitor to India.
Pakistan’s security
establishment invariably views its association with China as counterbalancing
India’s power and influence in the region. And the Chinese never hide this
reality as well. The deep-seated rivalry between India and Pakistan coupled
with China’s concerns about India-US strategic convergence have been among the
major factors bringing Beijing and Islamabad closer. Therefore, it remains to
be seen how effectively India will coordinate its position with China to ensure
that its security and economic interests are taken care of when American troops
are finally withdrawn from Afghanistan.
Despite some limiting
factors, China is showing its willingness to influence the present trajectory
of the Afghan peace process. Beijing is well-positioned to facilitate
intelligence sharing and border security mechanisms between Pakistan and
Afghanistan. Going further, the prospects of launching joint military
operations against the Islamic State in the restive border regions could also
be explored by the three countries.
However, the success of
Chinese initiatives will depend on its ability to persuade Pakistan to support
peace talks between Kabul and the Afghan Taliban, which is the most crucial
step in securing long-term peace in Afghanistan. Moreover, the end state in
Afghanistan is also going to be determined by the dynamics of
Afghanistan-Pakistan-India trilateral relations.
It should not be
forgotten that Afghanistan is known as a graveyard of empires that ignored the
country’s inherent complexities. American policy has been no exception, and its
architects have learned that lesson the hard way. Mollycoddling Pakistan has severe
consequences. Beijing must take note of reality if it is genuinely concerned
about regional peace and security
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