Foreign policy in an uncertain world
Business
Line
May
29, 2019
Foreign
policy in an uncertain world
Prime
Minister Modi’s first-term was marked by his placing his own distinctive stamp
on the conduct of Indian foreign policy. Just a few weeks preceding
commencement of the general election campaign, he received a message of
greetings from President Putin, who conferred the “highest decoration” of the
Russian Federation on him. This was accompanied by his being conferred with the
highest award of the UAE by its ruler, Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed. The personal
rapport that characterised Modi’s relations with other leaders like Presidents Obama
and Trump, French President Macron and Bangladesh Prime Minister Begum Khaleda
Zia, is also widely acknowledged.
Days
before election results were officially announced, China’s Global Times,
praised Modi’s policies in an article entitled: Modi’s Reelection Further
Reinforces China-India Trust. The Global Times lauded his meeting with
President Xi Jinping in Wuhan and his role in resolving tensions over Doklam.
It also praised him for India joining the Asian Infrastructure Bank, in the
face of opposition from the US and Japan.
This
Chinese approach, hopefully, signals encouraging prospects for continuance of
cooperative efforts by India and China, to maintain peace along the border. One
cannot, however, be sanguine about any significant narrowing of divergent
approaches by New Delhi and Beijing on regional security issues, including
China’s military and nuclear support for its “all weather friend,” Pakistan.
Promoting
India’s interests in a growingly uncertain world order is going to be a far
more challenging task for Modi than what he experienced in his first term. An
important factor behind these uncertainties and tensions is the volatility that
has been introduced in global relations, by the mercurial President Donald
Trump.
Trade
under Trump
The
Trump Administration has rocked relations with close allies in Europe, like
France and Germany. Even the British are wary of him. He strained trade
relations with neighbouring Canada and Mexico, by imposing duties on steel and
aluminum, which were withdrawn after retaliation by them. India has faced
similar challenges on bilateral trade, which would need careful handling,
bilaterally and in the WTO.
US
relations with China are now under severe strain, because of punitive duties
placed on a vast range of China’s exports. Trump has also placed stiff
sanctions on China’s communications giant, Huawei, which can cause severe
damage to China’s vital electronics industry. Such moves will inevitably result
in a setback to the efforts of President Xi Jinping to make China the most
important and influential power, globally.
These
are, however, actions that Trump can justify internationally, given China’s
propensity to blatantly violate international norms on trade and patents.
Moreover, the US Pacific Fleet is now defying China’s untenable maritime
boundary claims, across the Pacific Ocean. India has to deal with this
situation carefully, backing friends like Vietnam and Indonesia against
untenable Chinese maritime boundary claims, without being perceived to be
acting at American behest.
Arms
deal
India
appears confident of settling its differences on trade with the US bilaterally,
and through the WTO. Strains in bilateral relations with the US could well
arise, because of American sanctions on arms purchases from Russia. The US can
grant sanctions waivers on specific arms purchases from Russia, like it has
done in the case of the S400 Air Defence Missiles we are acquiring from Moscow.
There
also appears to be no intention to place sanctions on purchases of spare parts
for equipment already acquired from Russia. But, we are preparing for large
purchases from Russia of weapons systems including submarines, tanks, fighter
aircraft, frigates and AK 203 assault rifles, for indigenous manufacture. While
it was averred during the Putin visit that we had banking arrangements in place
to deal with Russian acquisitions, it is not clear how and whether this could
be done, in present circumstances.
American
banking sanctions are also rendering the purchase of oil from Iran almost
impossible. While Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the UAE can enable us to meet our
requirements, Iranian oil is cheaper and its transportation costs lower than
oil from other sources. The European Union, Russia and China do not accept the
legality of US sanctions on Iran. The US sanctions are unilateral and in
violation of the agreement to end all nuclear sanctions on Iran, which all
these powers signed.
While
most countries worldwide regard these US sanctions abhorrent, it would be
useful for India, Russia and China to discuss measures on how they can be
overcome or bypassed. Consultations with the EU, which is chary of challenging
the US, are also essential. It would be only prudent not to take any unilateral
steps on this issue.
Regional
initiatives
India’s
bilateral and regional initiatives in the recent past have enhanced its
influence across the entire Indian Ocean Region, from the Straits of Malacca to
the Straits of Aden. While ASEAN has been weakened and divided by China’s
actions, viable policies are being devised to balance growing Chinese influence
and assertiveness, involving subtle diplomacy with countries like Japan,
Indonesia and Vietnam, together with enhanced interaction with the US.
The
vast improvement in our relations with the Arab Gulf countries where over six
million Indians live remitting back over $60 billion annually has been
remarkable. Indian workers are welcomed and our professionals are steadily
replacing their western counterparts, across this region.
Finally,
in the sub-continent, Pakistan has excluded itself from economic integration
within South Asia, by its aversion to promoting economic ties with India and
denying India transit rights to Afghanistan.
While
we need not rush into any high profile “composite dialogue” with Pakistan, we
should discreetly engage its government and army.
International
pressure has increased on Pakistan after the Balakot airstrike. Prime Minister
Modi has called Pakistan’s nuclear bluff. The opening of the Kartarpur corridor
should be accompanied by initiatives to expand educational and cultural ties
and moves to promote group tourism to religious shrines and historical sites.
Such moves will be welcomed by people in Pakistan, and by the world at large.
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