September WPI cools to 2.6% YoY but masks worrying rise in onion prices ahead of Diwali
Money Control, Shreya Nandi
October 16, 2017 , India
India's wholesale inflation moderated to 2.60 percent in September, aided by softening food prices, although a sharp surge in onion prices, ahead of the festival season can pinch households’ kitchen budget.
In August, wholesale inflation stood at 3.24 percent in August and 1.36 percent in September 2016.
Wholesale inflation rate, measured by WPI, is a marker for price movements in bulk buys for traders and broadly mirrors trends in shop-end prices.
Latest price data released by the commerce ministry today showed that food prices, especially wheat, pulses, potatoes minerals and oilseeds continued to fall. However, prices of onion—a key ingredient used in Indian kitchen--witnessed nearly 80 percent jump in September as compared with a contraction (-)76.58 percent during the same period a year ago.
Heavy rains in Maharashtra and Karnataka has led to a demand-supply mismatch of onions, resulting in higher prices, coupled with rise in petroleum prices.
Fuel and power inflation, which has a weightage of 13.15 percent in WPI, stood at 9.01 percent in September, compared with 9.99 percent in August. Petrol prices grew 15.79 percent in September, versus a contraction of (-)9.28 percent a year ago, with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices witnessing nearly 21 percent jump, compared with 20.75 percent growth in August and (-)16.16 percent decline a year ago.
“Initial data has placed the index for crude petroleum at 55.6 for September 2017, only 1% higher than the level for June 2017, despite the 17% increase in the average price of the Indian crude oil basket in INR terms during this time period. There is a possibility that the inflation for September 2017 would subsequently be revised higher on account of crude oil,” Aditi Nayar, Principal Economist at ICRA said.
Primary articles, which account for more than a fifth of the entire the index, fell sharply to 0.15 percent in September from 2.66 percent in August and 3.73 percent a year ago.
Prices of vegetables cooled down 15.5 percent, recovering from nearly 45 percent growth in August. Prices of pulses continued to slump for close to a year now at 24 percent.
“The correction in vegetable prices was the chief driver of the decline in primary food inflation to 2.0 percent from 5.8 percent,” Nayar said.
Prices of non-food articles fell 2.2 percent, while growing 3.71 percent a year ago and falling 3.6 percent decline in August.
Manufactured products’ that account for close to two-third of the index grew 2.72 percent in September, remaining almost flat, with a 2.45 percent jump in August.
On Thursday, data released by the government showed that retail inflation remained flat at 3.28 percent in September, as food prices remained steady, while fuel and housing prices witnessing modest growth during the month.
Factory output grew sharply at 4.3 percent in August, highest in nine months, showing signs of recovery, aided by an expansion in the manufacturing sector.
Earlier during the month, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) forecasted that retail inflation will hover around 4.2-4.6 percent between October-March this year, higher than the previous projection of 4-4.5 percent. The inflation rate is still below the apex bank's medium-term target of 4 percent.
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